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The Network of Counterparty Risk: Analysing Correlations in OTC Derivatives

机译:交易对手风险网络:分析场外交易的相关性   衍生品

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摘要

Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateralcontract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also onthe risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In ratherinformal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market,institutions only report their aggregated quarterly risk exposure, but nodetails about their counterparties. Hence, little is known about thediversification of counterparty risk. In this paper, we reconstruct theweighted and time-dependent network of counterparty risk in the OTC derivativesmarket of the United States between 1998 and 2012. To proxy unknown bilateralexposures, we first study the co-occurrence patterns of institutions based ontheir quarterly activity and ranking in the official report. The networkobtained this way is further analysed by a weighted k-core decomposition, toreveal a core-periphery structure. This allows us to compare the activity-basedranking with a topology-based ranking, to identify the most importantinstitutions and their mutual dependencies. We also analyse correlations inthese activities, to show strong similarities in the behavior of the coreinstitutions. Our analysis clearly demonstrates the clustering of counterpartyrisk in a small set of about a dozen US banks. This not only increases thedefault risk of the central institutions, but also the default risk ofperipheral institutions which have contracts with the central ones. Hence, allinstitutions indirectly have to bear (part of) the counterparty risk of allothers, which needs to be better reflected in the price of OTC derivatives.
机译:交易对手风险是指交易双方违约的风险。这种风险不仅取决于所涉及的两个当事方,而且还取决于这些当事方各自持有的各种其他合同的风险。在非正规市场中,例如场外(OTC)衍生品市场,机构仅报告其合计的季度风险敞口,但对交易对手有所了解。因此,对交易对手风险的多样化知之甚少。在本文中,我们重建了1998年至2012年间美国场外衍生品市场中交易对手风险的加权和时间依赖网络。为了代理未知的双边风险,我们首先根据其季度活动和交易等级对机构的共现模式进行研究。正式报告。通过加权k核分解进一步分析以这种方式获得的网络,以揭示核外围结构。这使我们可以将基于活动的排名与基于拓扑的排名进行比较,以识别最重要的机构及其相互依存关系。我们还分析了这些活动中的相关性,以显示核心机构在行为上的强烈相似之处。我们的分析清楚地表明,在大约12家美国银行的一小部分中,伴生菌的聚集。这不仅增加了中央机构的违约风险,而且增加了与中央机构有合同的外围机构的违约风险。因此,所有机构都必须间接承担(部分)其他交易对手的风险,这需要在场外交易衍生品的价格中更好地体现出来。

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